2007 10-Meter Sporadic
Es Season
Art
Background
The following summary of the 2007
Sporadic Es season is based upon “Captures and Identified Partials and Fragments”
received at the home QTH of Art Jackson, KA5DWI, maidenhead grid square EM12ju,
located near Fort Worth, Texas. All the
data analyzed and displayed in this summary was accumulated by the software PropNetPSK, written and maintained by Jeff Steinkamp, N7YG. All
receptions were of the mode PSK31 of other participants of PropNet
(www.propnet.org). All data is based on reception of other
participants at KA5DWI on 10-Meters (28.131 MHz) at KA5DWI. None of the data
includes reception (Capture) of KA5DWI, or any other frequencies used on PropNet.
I will make reference to
past years in this summary, but a 3-year study of 10-Meter Sporadic Es will be
written and published in 2008.
Any opinions and theories
expressed are those of KA5DWI - Art Jackson only, and are not to be construed
to be from those members and officials of PropNet. My personal thanks go out to everyone that
was involved and participated in PropNet both the
current and past years.
Operating
QTH: Located in
Equipment:
Primary Rig – 20 year old Yaesu FT-747GX, running 15-20 watts.
Secondary/Lurker Rig – Radio Shack HTX-10 (not used for transmitting)
Antennas:
Primary – 35 year old
3-Element Yagi @ 30 feet.
Secondary – Cushcraft ATV-3 Vertical @ 10 feet and 125 foot inverted-V
Doublet @ 30 feet (for lurking use only)
Operating Schedule:
Tranceiving Mode – Began by 12:00 UTC (7:00 AM local CDT) and
ended by 04:00 UTC (11:00 PM local CDT).
Lurking Mode – Began by 04:00
UTC and ended by 12:00 UTC (11 PM – 7 AM local CDT) or whenever severe weather
was expected or occurring.
Data Statistics
Dates:
First identified partial or
capture – 23:00 UTC hour on April 21, 2007 (WP4JMN)
Last identified partial or
capture – 02:00 UTC hour on August 15, 2007 (KD5LWU)
Totals 2007:
Total Captures and
identified partials – 16,975 (9,919 Captures, 7,056 Identified
Partial/Fragments)
10,836 Total
Partial/Fragments during the full season.
3,780 partials were eliminated as duplicates or unidentifiable.
Year’s Challenges
- Computer – I lost and had to reconstruct a lot of data
last year on the home desktop whenever that computer was doing other
functions. This year I removed the
“other functions” by using another desktop. As luck would have it, the older desktop
began to have drive problems (read or write errors) and would not boot up
after power down. The problems were always temporary. Therefore in order
to stay up more reliably, I had to switch everything over to the other
desktop. It worked for the best. I transceived on the new desktop and lurked with the old
one. I transferred via my network the Catch data to the new computer
incase of failure of the old one. On rare occasions I used a laptop on 6
Meters.
- Software - I used PropNetPSK
Version 2.1.0.2 for most of the season.
Upgrading troubles from others made me decide on stability rather
than doing any upgrades. I believed
that these later versions perform differently than the older do. My capture to partial ratio was much
closer to one to one his year. I
also noticed more double and triple captures from a single signal. I also noticed (heard) a few signals
that never registered as a capture or a partial. I decided not to change any settings
during the season nor upgrade PropNet. I will
adjust settings and upgrade in the off-season.
- Weather – We had the 2nd rainiest first half
of 2007 in history. The day before July 4th we had 3.5 inches
of rain and measurable rainfall for 13 straight days. We also had a vicious hail-storm
(tennis-ball sized), but no major antenna damage (just $6,000 on the roof
and screens). I was plugging and
unplugging rigs and antennas on a consistent basis, but usually tried to
stay on. The nearest lightning
strike was to an electric feeder line across the street. I am sure the captures would have been
even higher if the weather was better. It never did keep me off.
- Equipment
Interference – The new televisions produce a lot of birdies. I could not use DCD Data Carrier Detect.
Rig – The Yaesu FT747GX USB Filter Circuit went on the fritz. I used LSB at 28.134.0 all season. It goes to Vertex Standard’s repair shop this fall.
Normal Operations
Transceive - Yaesu FT-747GX @ 15
watts into 3-Element Yagi pointed 60 degrees
Lurker –
Radio Shack HTX-10 into Cushcraft ATV3 Vertical.
Summary and Results –
2007 10-Meter Sporadic Es Season
KA5DWI EM12ju
I believe that this year’s
study would be highly important. We are
at solar minimum. A much less active sun
would also have less influence on Es.
Reading materials and data from other amateur radio operators led me to
believe that “Es” activity is higher and best during this period. I was not disappointed in that conclusion.
I experienced Es from
southern latitudes on 6-Meters by the second week of April. I worked a number of stations in
Usually Es do not take off
until the first week of May. When they finally did on May 3, I registered at
least one capture or identified partial for the remainder of the season (ended
August 15). The slowest days of the season seem to occur before and during
contests that can take advantage of these conditions (most notable, ARRL VHF
SS). There were as many high peak days in 2007 as there were in 2006. No daily total records for PropNet occurred this year.
July 8 was the most active capture day (493) and on June 30, 17
different stations were captured for this highest number.
The 6-Day Average chart (the
average number of captures for 5 days prior and including the day charted)
showed some rather unique trends.
This year showed much more
cycling than prior years. There were 7 or 8 distinctive peaks and valleys of
activity. Notice that they are clustered
around the Summer solstice, the accepted peak of the Summer Es season. The tallest peak (June 30) occurred near the
same day as it did in 2006. A final
active peak has occurred just after August 9 each of the 3 years that have been
studied.
Prior to these studies, I believed
that the Spring/Summer Es season occurred 8 weeks (16 Total) each side of the
solstice. Experience now indicates that
is really 9 to 10 weeks each side of the solstice. The following chart displays the total number
of captures for one week periods beginning April 21:
Once again the activity clusters around the Summer
solstice and
tends to be better overall the second half of the season.
What time of the day did “Es” occur?
The following chart showed
trends similar to, but not exact to other years. This year shows a distinctive lull after noon
until 3 PM local time. Last year, it was generally active the entire afternoon.
There is no doubt that Es
are best during the late morning hours and that sunlight is its creator. The “3 Hour Average” is the average number of
captures of the hour measured, the hour prior and after (Ex. 06 CDT is an
average of 05, 06, & 07 CDT).
Was the overall trend of time consistent during the
season?
Local Time is Central
Daylight (-5 hours UTC)
The chart displays 3-hour
averages into 4 quarters of the season.
Quarters 1, 2 and 4 favored the overall trend for the year. Quarter 3 closely resembled the 2006 plots.
The highest activity at quarters near the Summer solstice peaked one hour
earlier than those further away. The
highest activity always occurs in the late morning and was similar to 2006
charts.
Does distance have any bearing on peak activity?
The chart shows hourly activity
in 500 km increments beginning at 750 km. The optimal distances for Sporadic Es
(751-1750 km) peak at similar times for the most part. Short distances peak a little later. The farther distances (1750 km +) show very
little similarity to the other distances.
Did direction have any affect on peak times?
It appeared to have an
affect. East to northeast paths tend to
peak earlier, as northerly and southeasterly peak an hour later. As expected, westerly paths peak the latest
around noon local time. Easterly activity drops dramatically at sundown,
westerly drop off more slowly.
What were the best times for specific areas of the
country, short-skip, and DX?
I was happy to have more close-by participants this year and many more
captures.
This chart was still similar to 2006.
On the other hand, captures from the northeast U.S
were much more far and few between.
Active stations and more QRM were to blame. The chart
was representative of distant results.
Every year I can depend on the 4th Call
area. This year was no exception.
The chart is similar to the overall results and was
responsible for the late afternoon peak.
2007 saw a vast increase in activity from
As well, a large increase in the 9th Call
areas occurred.
Note the similarity in the overall capture charts.
This chart is interesting.
Northerly paths tended to decrease at a constant rate
in the evenings rather than an abrupt halt.
I was a little disappointed this year in results from
the West Coast.
My experience had been that signals off the back of
my Yagi were as good as my Vertical performed.
I will have to review what antennas to use next year.
Had it not been for the Reverend (KD5LWU), this chart
would have been near zero.
Thank you Cristino, WP4JMN
for joining PropNet.
He was my first capture this season.
“Es” generally occur in southerly paths first and is
the reason why they are “seasonal” first.
Note that the captures occur late afternoon and it is
the trait for distant captures.
The PropNet Honor Roll
Each year I have charted all stations that have had
500 or more captures.
I lowered in to 400 this year due to more short-skip
and less western activity.
Grand Champions of PropNet Captures
Rich WD4RBX and Robert WB8ILI were
captured approximately 2200 times each this season.
Final 2007 Totals for PropNet Captures
Busiest
Day on 10 Meters in 2007 – July 8
WP4JMN
Most
Calls on 10 Meters in 2007 – June 30
Upcoming ….
I will be merging 3 years of
data (2005, 06 & 07) when time permits this fall with the intent of
publishing an overall study in early 2008.
I have seen significant consistency in the data, so a good report will
result. In my opinion, it will be time
to remove the description “Sporadic” from “Es”.
I plan to switch PropNet back on in the late Fall of this year and have it
on until mid January. It should give me
enough data to do a Winter Es study. But
I will do that when I have nothing better to do with my time.
Thanks again to all the PropNet participants.
73’s
Art KA5DWI